Month: October 2024

United increases 2025-2026 elite status requirements

ssegraves
United increases 2025-2026 elite status requirements

United released their 2025 requirements for 2026 MileagePlus elite status and it’s not great news. I’ve put two tables with the 2024 requirements and the new 2025 requirements below. For reference, PQF is Premier Qualifying Flights and PQP is Premier Qualifying Points or dollars spent. For every dollar spent on airfare with United you earn 1 PQP.

Year Premier Silver Premier Gold Premier Platinum Premier 1K
2024 12 PQF and 4,000 PQP or 5,000 PQP 24 PQF and 8,000 PQP or 10,000 PQP 36 PQF and 12,000 PQP or 15,000 PQP 54 PQF and 18,000 PQP or 24,000 PQP
2025 15 PQF and 5,000 PQP or 6,000 PQP 30 PQF and 10,000 PQP or 12,000 PQP 45 PQF and 15,000 PQP or 18,000 PQP 60 PQF and 22,000 PQP or 28,000 PQP

As you can see, this comes out to 25% increase in PQF and PQP needed to qualify for each status, with some minor differences for specific ones (1K only needs 11% more PQFs with 22% more PQPs).

In an email sent to MileagePlus members, there are the following perks coming for PlusPoints, a currency that once earned, allows flyers to upgrade flights from economy to Premium Economy and Polaris (Business class).

Starting in mid-2025, PlusPoints earned upon achieving the highest tiers of
Premier status will become even more versatile. In addition to using
PlusPoints to request premium seat and cabin upgrades, you’ll soon be able
to redeem PlusPoints for new perks, including:

  • Premier qualifying points (PQP) or Premier qualifying flights (PQF)
  • TravelBank cash
  • Bonus miles
  • Gifting Premier status to other MileagePlus members

So as PlusPoints are earned next year, you’ll be able to use them in 2026 for these new “perks”. These new options seem to be in response to the general complaint I hear which is that PlusPoint upgrades rarely clear. So elite flyers are earning these points and are then unable to use them which is frustrating and deflates the value. And United would much rather having pay business class passengers in those seats rather than upgrading someone using PlusPoints so they needed a way to give the points value and these perks are what they came up with. The PlusPoints now feel like a second currency, in addition to the existing miles you earn from flying and credit card spend.

Keeping it classy in United Polaris business class.

I have mixed feelings about the increase in qualifying points and flights for their respective statuses. One one hand it feels like United is trying to thin the herd of elites in their ranks. By making it harder to earn each level of status, theoretically there will be fewer elites at each of those levels. But that theory doesn’t match what United has said about the market in general, which is that business travel is way down. So with these changes are they insinuating that leisure travelers are spending so much more that they have to thin that out? If so, that’s insane because it doesn’t match the broader economic picture that everyone is painting; That we’re in an economic slump and people are saving not spending.

United clearly has overcrowding issues at their hubs, especially at Newark and San Francisco. Just go browse Threads or Twitter and you will see people complaining that their San Francisco-Newark pre-boarding call for 1Ks, who get early boarding before Group 1, was half of the plane. These are fortress hubs for United with limited competition so lots of elites are expected but with these latest requirement changes, they make it just a little harder for those flyers to earn status. Maybe it knocks that early boarding number down by 5 people per flight. United must have some data to back up their decisions, or they are simply getting very greedy.

What are my plans?

I have my doubts that these increases impact the number of elites at each level but I would love to be proven wrong. I think the spend requirements for 1K, where you get lots of PlusPoints for upgrades and generally more perks, is outrageous and don’t see my travel patterns ever meeting the $22k and 60 flight requirement to qualify. What I struggle with is where to go instead. United’s schedules out of Portland are actually quite good and my cursory searches of other carriers aren’t promising. Delta has similar schedules but they also have similar spend requirements for elite status. Alaska does not have all of the spend requirements but their schedules out of Portland are not great, especially if they don’t fly somewhere non-stop out of here. Because they lack a middle of the country or east coast hub, the connection options are limited to one of their other west coast hubs or via American Airlines and one of their hubs; American’s schedules aren’t much better.

All of this to say, I feel quite stuck. What makes this even more difficult is that I am at 1.5 million lifetime miles on United, guaranteeing lifetime Gold status. If I fly another 1.5 million miles I am guaranteed lifetime 1K. I would love to reach that milestone but just don’t know that I can do that quickly (or cheaply). So, for longhaul work flights, I think I am going to fly the better carriers when I can and credit to Alaska. For domestic travel I am thinking I’ll give preference to United but if they are outrageously priced I’ll consider other carriers. We will see how this plays out in the next few months, I have a few international work trips in the planning stages and I’ll need to make a decision.

Summary

United has raised the qualification requirements for elite status and announced some new things that elites can redeem their PlusPoints for, making up for the fact it is so hard to redeem the PlusPoints for upgrades. The qualification requirements have gone up around 25% for most status levels. If United sees a shift in the economy they can change these requirements or give bonuses and adjust next year.

Qantas giving upgrades to politicians

ssegraves
Qatar Airlines 777

Ben from One Mile at a Time —

According to the book, Australia’s current Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has received at least 22 free Qantas upgrades from economy class, including some for his family and personal travel. The book claims that Albanese would liaise directly with Joyce for these upgrades. It’s claimed that the requests for these upgrades date back several years, including to when Albanese had the role of Transport Minister.

 
Ben goes on to discuss whether this even matters.

Am I the only one who feels like we’re splitting hairs here? How about we see an Australian politician actually fight for the people, and make it so that politicians don’t get access to a special lounge, and where it is an issue when politicians get free upgrades? This isn’t how it should be, in my opinion.

To what extent did these factors influence the relationship between politicians and Qantas? I mean, it’s hard to say, though if you ask me, the Australian government has tried to block foreign competitors of Qantas, all while letting the airline operate in a way that simply isn’t in the best interest of the traveling public.

 
I tend to think it does matter, especially as there was (and still is) quite a bit of controversy over Qantas getting its way as foreign carriers ask for more flights into Australia as part of their bilateral agreements. The Albanese government rejected those requests.

The Guardian’s write-up on the blocking of the flights is quite telling.

“The Government has the opportunity to make some immediate decisions that will put downward pressure on airfares, and improve reliability and competitiveness,” McKenzie said.

She said the decision to refuse Qatar’s request “makes little sense, particularly when we’ve seen the cost of international flights in some cases treble in the last couple of years”. McKenzie claimed allowing it would put “downward pressure on airfares”.

McKenzie said King had provided varying reasons for rejecting the request, including wanting “to help Qantas afford to buy new planes”.

“This government seems to be running a protection racket for a major domestic carrier by refusing to increase competition and freight capacity,” McKenzie said.

 

Prices into and out of Australia are at all time highs and Qantas is posting record profits. Other carriers are begging to fly more flights and potentially lower fares and those requests are being rejected by a government where the leader is receiving status and upgrades from what you could call the national airline. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, and gets upgraded like a duck…

Friday links

ssegraves

Some links this week that I found interesting.

United’s 2025 route announcement

ssegraves
United’s 2025 route announcement

The Announcement

On October 10, United Airlines announced eight new destinations and a few other new routes. I had predicted, because of my own selfish desire that United fly the routes, San Francisco-Hanoi and San Francisco-Bangkok as well as Newark-Palermo. The only one I predicted accurately was Newark-Palermo. The full list of new destinations are:

  • Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia – United will serve Ulaanbaatar from Tokyo-Narita on a 737 starting May 1, 2025.
  • Kaohsiung, Taiwan – United will serve this southern Taiwan destination from Tokyo-Narita on a 737 starting July 11, 2025.
  • Dakar, Senegal – This will be flown from Washington-Dulles starting May 23, 2025. I’m guessing this will be flown on a 787-8 but that info is not confirmed yet.
  • Nuuk, Greenland – From Newark, this route will start on June 14, 2025. The speculation is that this will be flown on a 737 MAX 8, but no confirmation from United yet.
  • Palermo, Italy – United will fly to this destination from Newark and the route will start on May 21, 2025. This route was originally planned for summer of 2020 but the Covid lockdowns prevented it from happening. The route will be operated by a 767-400ER.
  • Bilbao, Spain – Starting May 31, 2025, United will fly to Bilbao out of Newark. United didn’t state what plane they will be flying on the route but my guess would be a 767-300ER or a 757-200.
  • Madeira Island, Portugal – United will operate a 3-times weekly flight to the Portuguese island out of Newark. This is another route that might be operated by a 737 MAX 8, but we don’t yet know for sure.
  • Faro, Portugal – This Portuguese beach destination will start out of Newark four times a week on May 16. This is another flight I think could be a 757-200.

A few other items were announced as well, including year-round service from Tokyo-Narita to Palau. This service is in addition to the flights on United between Palau and Manila and Palau and Guam. There will also be a new daily flight between Houston and Puerto Escondido, Mexico on an Embraer E-175. San Francisco will see a new service to San Jose, Costa Rica once daily. And lastly, United will fly Washington-Dulles to Venice, Italy and Nice, France in summer of 2025 in addition to the Newark flights to those destinations.

My Thoughts

It is nice that United is adding some new routes and I think a few of them really stand out. Their announcement in summary was, “people are bored going to Rome” and that sentiment doesn’t necessarily sit well with me. Yes, people want new destinations and there are travelers who want to go to these new destinations but I wouldn’t define most of what they announced as popular tourist destination.

The exciting routes to me are Nuuk, Ulaanbaatar, and Palermo, with Palermo being interesting because it is in Sicily and directly competes with Delta’s newly announced route to Catania. The most exciting to me is Ulaanbaatar; I would love to visit Mongolia and spend some time on steppe exploring. It is not an easy place to reach on Star Alliance with transit of China, South Korea, or Turkey being the only way to get there until this United flight starts.

Seth recently visited Greenland on the new Air Greenland service to Canada and I think he raises some very practical questions on the ability of Greenland to handle a large influx of tourists. The route is super cool though and I do hope to experience it and explore Greenland.

I am sure Bilbao, Spain will perform well for United but I do wonder what United will run the route on. The runway at Bilbao is 8,500 feet and surrounded by hills and mountains so it will need to be a performant aircraft, making me lean toward a 757-200.

Faro, Portugal makes some sense because of the large Portuguese population in New Jersey and Faro being a well regarded beach/coastal locale.

The Kaohsiung route is an interesting addition out of Tokyo. My understanding is that there is a ton of demand to Taiwan and this is another option where United can route traffic to the country on their metal with a single stop in Japan. With slots at Narita fairly easy to come by I could see United continuing to explore options out of the airport to tertiary cities in Asia.

Overall I was relatively unimpressed by the announcement. It almost feels like United hired a British stag/hen party planner and just went with whatever destinations they recommended. Maybe folks really want to go to places on the Mediterranean for the Instagram novelty but that doesn’t excite me very much. We’ll have to see how the routes perform, especially as year-over-year travel numbers start to decline.

How long until we’re all on Ozempic?

ssegraves

From Asterisk Magazine —

GLP-1 medications1 like Ozempic appear to be that drug. Estimates suggest GLP-1s can reduce body weight by at least 15% when taken regularly — and perhaps even more as newer drugs come to market. And though evidence is still being gathered, they may have benefits beyond weight loss: potentially curbing drinking, treating sleep apnea, and reducing risk of stroke. They’ve been called, in many places, a miracle drug, and as such, the category is poised for massive growth. Gallup estimated that 15.5 million Americans have tried them, and half as many are currently using them.

My forecast predicts that the supply of GLP-1s will increase from eight million patient-years to roughly enough for approximately 23 million Americans by 2030. Still, this is only enough supply for about 15% of the 147 million Americans with diabetes or obesity.

 

Wild. There is definitely some value to these drugs but at what cost over natural measures? For some, I’m sure Ozempic represents a miracle but it’s also a drug that doctors and researchers are still experimenting with and trying to fully understand.