Tag: Narita

Delta drops Portland-Tokyo route

ssegraves

In a letter to the US Department of Transportation on Thursday, September 21 Delta informed the agency that they will not be restarting their Tokyo service from Portland. The service, which previously operated to Tokyo-Narita was set to restart on October 23, 2023 but to Tokyo-Haneda. This restart was after attempts by Delta to get more flexibility in their Haneda operations from the DOT; They were asking to operate from different US gateways but were told by the DOT that such changes would not be granted.

Pursuant to Condition No. 3 of DOT Order 2023-2-15 (“Dormancy Order”), Delta hereby notifies the Department that it will not launch Portland (PDX) to Tokyo Haneda (HND) flights by the October 29, 2023 deadline specified in the Dormancy Order and, consequently, returns the daily PDX-HND slot pair allocated to Delta by Order 2019-8-6 to the Department.1 Delta plans to resume all other U.S.-Haneda flying by October 29, 2023, consistent with its prior awards.

Historically, Delta inherited a bunch of routes from Tokyo-Narita as part of their merger with Northwest Airlines in 2009. You can see the extent of their Asia/Oceania presence from Tokyo post-merger in this map. They basically had all of their US routes serving Tokyo itself and onward connections to other places in Asia.

gcmap.com of historic Delta routes out of Tokyo-Narita

As Tokyo-Haneda slot restrictions loosened up all of the major airlines looked to fly into the much more central airport, with the caveat that slots would be limited and intra-Asia or Oceania flying wouldn’t be feasible from Tokyo-Haneda. In 2019 Delta received approval to fly to Tokyo-Haneda from Portland, Seattle, Atlanta, Detroit, and Honolulu. This was the beginning of the end of the Portland service in my opinion. There is a decent amount of traffic between Portland and Tokyo but those flights relied on connections at Narita to really justify the 767-300 that Delta was operating. This was even predicted by Delta’s then-chief legal officer Ben Hirst in 2016 who stated:

It’s the loss of the connecting traffic that will kill the [Narita] flights,

Without those connecting flights the justification for some US flights to Tokyo just didn’t make financial sense anymore. Delta announced Portland-Seoul in September of 2021 in the middle of the pandemic. I even wrote about this when the Delta/Korean Air joint venture was announced in 2017. But the 2021 announcement seemed to signal Delta’s plans, they would serve the Asian destinations via connections in Seoul with their partner Korean Air and keep Portland-Tokyo-Haneda for the traffic going directly to Tokyo… Or so we thought.

This most recent letter to the DOT as well as the rumor that Delta will not start Portland-Seoul seems to hint that Delta might not have the planes for the routes they want to fly or that they don’t view the Portland market as strong enough or a mix of both. I tend to think that they don’t value the Portland market enough. Ever since British Airways started their Portland-London flight, Delta has not brought their flight on the same route back into service.

In 2021, Delta revealed in a Form 8-K filing that they would be retiring the entire fleet of 767-300s by 2025. At the time, Delta had 56 of the Boeing 767-300s but that number has significantly decreased as they have implemented their retirement plan. Essentially the only 767-300s operating now are to Hawaii, Europe, and Africa.

The news of Portland-Tokyo going away is disappointing and while Delta and the Port of Portland can claim that the demand just isn’t there, I think the reality is a bit more complicated. It’s clear that Delta was using the Portland slot as a form of leverage in hopes of getting their flight moved to a different airport.

My hope is that Alaska Airlines and the Port of Portland approach Japan Airlines to work out a deal for a flight, even if it only operates 3-4x/week. The Alaska membership in the Oneworld alliance with Japan Airlines should hold some weight and the port could show that there is still demand. This would serve connecting traffic within Asia as well as give travelers from Asia another connecting option along he west coast (not to mention the tourist traffic between Portland/Tokyo).

A Farewell to Portland-Tokyo?

ssegraves


This post may seem premature and to be clear, I have no inside information from Delta or the Port of Portland. This is simply a hypothesis.

With Delta’s newly announced joint venture with Korean Air it is becoming more and more likely that the Delta hub at Tokyo’s Narita Airport will be dismantled. For me it means that a great non-stop option to Tokyo PDX-NRT, will likely go away, or at least become Portland to Seoul.

But I am with Cranky Flier on his analysis.

This may be sad for those who liked having elevated service to Tokyo, but the vast majority of people, this new Korean relationship will be far more valuable. At the same time, Delta can continue to develop its relationship with China Eastern to further penetrate the Chinese market. China will likely become the most important air market in the world over time. While there are joint venture issues since the US and China don’t have open skies yet, Delta is now incredibly well positioned with both Korean and China Eastern offering tremendous penetration. Meanwhile, for American, China has been one of the most vexing problems, so it decided to do something about it.

As nice as having a non-stop option to Tokyo is, having a one-stop option to all over Asia is even better. The current Delta connections out of Narita are varied (Manila, Singapore, Bangkok, etc.) but mean that the airline has to dedicate aircraft and crews to a hub halfway across the world. Back in say the 1970s and 80s and really even into the 90s, having a hub in Tokyo made a lot of sense for airlines. Interline agreements, joint ventures, and airline alliances did not exist so if an airline wanted to carry passengers from a hub to a far off destination they needed all of their own resources available along the way. Today that model has changed. Airlines are leveraging partnerships to get passengers to destinations where they do not themselves fly. Delta, disappointed with the lack of Tokyo-Haneda slots that have been given out, is smart to reallocate the planes that currently fly in and out of Tokyo-Narita to places where it makes more sense (read, money).

While I will be sad to see a historic route go away, I love the idea of connecting in Seoul for other places in Asia. The airport is laid out well and Korean Air has a good reputation.

The unanswered question is, will a Japanese carrier like ANA or Japan Airlines approach PDX to offer a non-stop option to Narita or Haneda. With the new partnership between Alaska Airlines and Japan Airlines, there is a case to be made that a Japan Airlines flight is a no-brainer. But my fondness of United and the Star Alliance would really love seeing an ANA 787 parked at PDX offering a non-stop to Haneda.

Delta Threatens to Drop Portland-Tokyo Flight – Yawn

ssegraves

Delta, amid the possibility of Tokyo-Haneda airport opening 10 more slots to U.S. carriers, is pitching a fit and threatening to kill their Portland-Narita non-stop flight. This is not the first threat they have made regarding their flights to Narita, just a few weeks ago, they said that their Minneapolis-St. Paul to Narita flight would need to end. That first threat came as a surprise, but the addition of other flights that would need to come to end has not ceased.

The crux of the matter is whether or not the opening up of more Haneda slots to U.S. carriers would be detrimental to Delta’s hub at Narita and their traffic throughout the region. As quoted in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

But Delta contends that, since United and American are partners with ANA and JAL, respectively, the deal tilts in their favor. That’s because United and American could also sell seats on the new ANA and JAL flights, enabling them to offer significantly more seats to Haneda and beyond.

I don’t doubt Delta would suffer a little due to the partnerships that American and United both have. However, is pitching a fit and essentially becoming the kid who quits the game when the score goes to the opposition really the best way to handle it? Delta seems to have a pretty good case to get a number of the slots at Haneda or special dispensation to create a mini hub there, but they would rather burn a bridge by threatening to remove a non-stop international route from cities that have few connections to Asia. Seems like bad business to me.

Haneda is a more convenient airport for travelers ending their journey in Tokyo or continuing on to other parts of Japan as there are a ton of domestic connections. With recent expansions, the number of options to other cities throughout Asia from Haneda has increased as well. The idea of Delta running a hub in Japan and expecting that to last, even without Haneda being opened up more, seems far fetched. I say call Delta’s bluff. Expand the Haneda slots and move forward. If Delta ends up getting rid of Portland-Narita, the Port of Portland should aggressively pursue ANA or Japan Airlines to fill their spot at PDX.